U.S. Stock Market and 10-Year Treasury
Key Stock and Interest Rate Benchmarks
The U.S. stock market and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield are the two numbers that best capture the mood of the American economy. The stock line here tracks the broad U.S. stock market — the combined value of America's publicly traded companies, with dividends reinvested — while the 10-Year Treasury yield shows what it costs the government to borrow and quietly sets the rate on everything from mortgages to car loans.
Tip: drag the handles on the zoom bar above to change the visible range, or drag the middle of the window to pan. The range pills (1Y / 5Y / 10Y / Max) snap the window to common presets.
Nominal values are the actual numbers recorded at the time. Real values are adjusted for inflation — the general rise in prices over the years — so different eras can be compared fairly. Switch the Values control to Today's dollars to restate the U.S. stock market in current purchasing power (what each past level is worth in current purchasing power) and to show the 10-Year Treasury as a real yield: the nominal yield minus the past year's inflation. A real yield below zero means the interest earned didn't keep up with rising prices.
Each month shows the U.S. stock market total-return level and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yield. The stock series is the broad U.S. market from the Kenneth R. French Data Library (Fama/French monthly research factors, Mkt-RF plus RF, with dividends reinvested). The 10-Year Treasury yield is plotted on the right-hand axis because it is a percentage, not an index level. Inflation adjustments use the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U, all items, seasonally adjusted) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED series CPIAUCSL). All trademarks belong to their respective owners.
This chart packs two very different measures into one picture, so it has two vertical scales. Take them one at a time.
The blue line: the U.S. stock market (left scale)
The blue line is the broad U.S. stock market — the combined value of America's publicly traded companies, bundled into a single growing number called an index level (with dividends reinvested). Read it on the left axis. When the blue line climbs, those companies are collectively worth more. This is the stock market most people mean when they ask "how's the market doing?" It is built from the Fama/French research data.
The green line: the 10-Year Treasury yield (right scale)
The 10-Year Treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for ten years, shown as a percentage on the right axis. It gets its own scale because a yield of, say, 4% would be invisible next to an index in the thousands. It also moves for different reasons than stocks, so the two lines often go their own ways.
Getting around
Hover over any point to read the exact values on that date. Use the Range pills (1Y, 5Y, 10Y, Max) or drag the zoom bar under the chart to focus on a stretch of time. The Series toggles let you hide either line so you can study one on its own.
Two switches above the chart change how the whole story reads. They are worth understanding.
Nominal vs. Today's dollars
Nominal means the actual number recorded at the time. The market's level back in 1980 is a nominal value. But a dollar in 1980 bought far more than a dollar today, so comparing old and new nominal numbers is unfair.
Flip the Values control to Today's dollars and every past value is restated in what it would be worth now, after inflation (the slow, broad rise in prices over time). A market level from decades ago translates into far fewer of today's dollars than its raw number suggests. The lesson: a big chunk of the market's eye-popping "growth" was really just the whole economy's prices rising. The today's-dollars view strips that out and shows the gain in real buying power. (For the green line, this view shows the real yield — the interest rate after subtracting inflation. When it dips below zero, lenders were actually losing ground.)
Log scale
Over 45 years the U.S. stock market grew many times over. On a normal (linear) axis, that makes recent swings look enormous and old ones look like almost nothing — because the same percentage move is a much bigger number of points when the index is already high.
Take Black Monday in 1987: the market fell about 20% in a single day, one of the worst drops in history. On a linear axis it is barely a notch, while a smaller percentage dip in 2020 looks far scarier. That is the chart playing tricks on you.
Turn on Logarithmic scale and the axis is spaced so that equal percentage changes take up equal space. Now a 20% fall looks the same size whether it happened in 1987 or 2020, the early years become readable, and steady growth shows up as a roughly straight line. Try it, and watch Black Monday grow into the major event it actually was.
The chart highlights moments worth knowing about. Light-gray bands mark official U.S. recessions, and numbered flags near the bottom axis mark single big events. You can turn either set on or off with the controls above the chart.
Notable events
Recessions since 1980
A handful of plain observations that this chart makes easy to see.
Recessions are shorter and rarer than they feel
The gray bands mark official U.S. recessions — stretches when the economy was shrinking. Notice how little of the 45-year span they actually cover, and how the market has usually recovered and gone on to new highs. We hear about recessions constantly, and they do matter for planning, but over a long horizon they tend to be bumps, not the main story.
...but timing matters if you'll need the money soon
The real danger is not the recession itself — it is being forced to sell at a low point. If your time horizon is short (a house down payment next year, or you are about to retire), a downturn can do lasting harm because you cannot wait for the rebound. That is the case for a balanced portfolio: a mix of stocks and steadier holdings that leans safer as the day you will need the cash gets closer. See Balancing Your Investments.
If you invest regularly, don't try to time it
When you add money every paycheck — like a 401(k) — some purchases land at high prices and some at low ones, and it averages out. Waiting for the "perfect" moment usually backfires. For most people, being steady beats trying to be clever.
The 10-Year Treasury sets the price of other loans
The green line is more than a government statistic. Lenders price mortgages — and increasingly car loans, now routinely stretched to five or six years — off the 10-year Treasury yield. When that line rises, the rate on a new home or car loan tends to rise with it. See The Long and Short of Car Loans and Will Refinancing Save You Money?
This page is a teaching tool, not financial advice.