Rates Move Together
Led by the federal funds rate and the 10-Year Treasury, the cost of borrowing tends to rise and fall as one
There is no single “interest rate” — but these rates are far from independent. Two do most of the leading: the federal funds rate, which the Federal Reserve steers, and the 10-Year Treasury yield, set every day by the bond market. When those two move, the rates people actually pay — car loans, mortgages — tend to move with them, riding a step higher because lenders add their own costs and risks. Pick any period below and watch the whole group travel together: the leaders on the line chart, and where everyone ended up in the bars.
Two rates lead. The federal funds rate is steered by the Federal Reserve; the 10-Year Treasury yield is set every day by the bond market. The rates people actually pay — car loans, mortgages — follow them, riding a step higher because lenders add their own costs and risks. Pick a period and watch the group move together.
Tip: drag the handles to widen or narrow the period, or drag the shaded window to slide it through history. The bars below update to the average over that period.
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python3 scripts/fetch_fred_series.py MORTGAGE30US then python3 scripts/update_mortgage_30yr.py to generate data/mortgage-30yr.json, and the mortgage bar will appear.
30-year mortgage rate: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey), via FRED. Copyright, Freddie Mac. Reprinted with permission.
The top chart shows the two rates that lead the rest, and they move for different reasons. The federal funds rate is an overnight rate strongly influenced by Federal Reserve policy; it usually moves in quick steps. The 10-Year Treasury yield is the market's price for lending to the U.S. government for ten years; it reflects years of expectations and moves more on its own.
The bars translate a chosen period into four averages. Two are the drivers above; two are what households actually pay: a 60-month new-auto loan and a 30-year mortgage. Consumer rates sit above the government benchmarks because lenders add credit risk, costs, and profit — the gap is real, but it is never a single fixed number, and a lower benchmark does not guarantee a lower quoted rate for any one borrower.
The auto-loan and mortgage figures are averages of what was actually reported in the period. The auto series is reported only a few times a year; if your period is very short and contains no reading, the bar falls back to the most recent value on or before the period's end, and the note under the chart says so. These are aggregate market figures, not personalized quotes.
| Series | FRED ID | Source | Original frequency | In the chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective federal funds rate | FEDFUNDS | Federal Reserve (Board of Governors) | monthly | line + bar |
| 10-Year Treasury yield | DGS10 | Federal Reserve (Board of Governors) | daily → monthly avg | line + bar |
| 60-month new-auto loan rate | RIFLPBCIANM60NM | Federal Reserve (Board of Governors) | ~quarterly | bar |
| 30-year fixed mortgage average | MORTGAGE30US | Freddie Mac (PMMS) | weekly → monthly avg | bar |
The first three series are produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (public domain) and distributed through FRED; they come from the same key-interest-rates.json file used across the site. The 30-year mortgage average is Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, kept in a separate file.
Monthly averages smooth over shorter-term movements and should not be read as end-of-period quotes. The underlying data may be revised, and each series' latest observation can fall on a different date. This page is a teaching tool, not financial advice or a source of personalized loan quotes.
Sources: FEDFUNDS · DGS10 · RIFLPBCIANM60NM · MORTGAGE30US. 30-year mortgage data: Copyright, Freddie Mac. Reprinted with permission. Other series: U.S. government, public domain. FRED is the distributor, not the originator.